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The Week Ahead – COVID-19, Trump, and a Busy Economic Calendar in Focus

For the Dollar:

It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic data front in what is a shortened week.

We’re now beyond May numbers and getting a better idea of the economic environment at the turn of the quarter.

Key numbers in the week:

CB Consumer Confidence figures for June get things going on Tuesday. An upward trend will need to continue to support a more positive outlook on spending. The latest shift in reopening and spike in new COVID-19 cases will offset the effect of any positive numbers, however.

On Wednesday, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change figures for June could give risk appetite a boost. It would have to be a full recovery of the decline in May, with interest…

The market’s preferred ISM Manufacturing PMI is also due out on Wednesday. A material slowdown in the pace of contraction is anticipated. Anything worse will be a test, though the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the following week is far more significant.

The focus then shifts to Thursday…

June’s nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate are due out. After better than expected figures in May, can the rehiring trend keep pace?

Economists are optimistic about another jump in hiring. It may not be enough, however, to bring the unemployment rate down to sub-10%. That could be an issue…

On Thursday, the weekly jobless claims will also influence. We expect factory orders and trade data for May to have a muted impact, however.

On the monetary policy front, the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday will garner plenty of attention. Following recent moves by the FED, however, there may not be too many surprises.

The U.S markets are closed on Friday in recognition of American Independence.

According to Trading Central (3rd party RIA) the USDJPY is short positions below 108.00 with targets at 106.00 & 104.50 in extension.

* Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance

https://europefx.tradingcentral.com/Product?PK_ANALYSE=10799707

Number of Lots:Required Margin:Risk Management (50%):Potential Profit/Loss 104.50
1€ 2,970.89€ 1,485.44€ 2,241.00
5€ 14,854.43€ 29,708.85€ 11,205.00
10€ 29,708.85€ 59,417.71€ 22,410.00
25€ 74,272.13€ 148,544.27€ 56,025.00
50€ 148,544.27€ 297,088.53€ 112,050.00



For the EUR:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.

June’s private sector PMIs for Italy and Spain are due out on Wednesday and Friday. Finalized PMIs from France, Germany, and the Eurozone are also due out.

Expect plenty of interest in the numbers.

French and German retail sales and German employment figures due out on Tuesday and Wednesday will also provide direction. Consumer spending will need to rebound for a swift economic recovery… A marked rise in hiring is also going to be needed to support consumption.

Expect prelim June inflation figures and the Eurozone’s unemployment rate to have a muted impact, however.

The EUR/USD ended the week up by 0.37% to $1.1219.

According to Trading Central (3rd party RIA) the EURUSD is long positions above 1.1100 with targets at 1.1375 & 1.1495 in extension.

* Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance

https://europefx.tradingcentral.com/Product?PK_ANALYSE=10799706

Number of Lots:Required Margin:Risk Management (50%):Potential Profit/Loss 1.1495
1€ 3,333.33€ 1,666.67€ 2,449.97
5€ 16,666.67€ 33,333.33€ 12,249.87
10€ 33,333.33€ 66,666.67€ 24,499.75
25€ 83,333.33€ 166,666.67€ 61,249.37
50€ 166,666.67€ 333,333.33€ 122,498.75

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

Key stats include finalized 1st quarter GDP numbers and finalized June private sector PMIs.

Following the dire GDP numbers, there would have to be a material revision to influence the Pound.

Any upward revision to the manufacturing (Wed) and services PMI (Thurs) would provide support, however.

Ultimately, any moves will be hinged progress towards a British trade agreement with the EU.

While there’s no extension to the transition period, negotiations are to continue into July. A solid base is going to be needed, however, to fuel hope of an agreement in the coming weeks.

On the monetary policy front, the BoE’s Financial Stability Report is due out on Friday. While it’s unlikely to be pretty reading, there’s unlikely to be anything new…

The GBP/USD ended the week down by 0.11% to $1.2336.

According to Trading Central (3rd party RIA) the GBPUSD is short positions below 1.2555 with targets at 1.2245 & 1.2060 in extension.

* Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance

https://europefx.tradingcentral.com/Product?PK_ANALYSE=10799708

Number of Lots:Required Margin:Risk Management (50%):Potential Profit/Loss 1.2060
1€ 3,667.03€ 1,833.52€ 2,583.61
5€ 18,335.17€ 36,670.33€ 12,918.05
10€ 36,670.33€ 73,340.67€ 25,836.10
25€ 91,675.83€ 183,351.67€ 64,590.25
50€ 183,351.67€ 366,703.34€ 129,180.50